MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has established a goal of producing 662 million tonnes of coal annually by 2050 as part of a newly approved industry development plan. This target is included in Russia’s revised coal expansion strategy. In 2024, coal output was around 443 million tonnes. The government approved the plan via Order No. 2606-r on September 22, setting long-term goals for production, exports, and sector growth.
The strategy presents four possible routes for coal development up to 2050. In the main scenario, production is projected to reach 530.1 million tonnes in 2030 and 595.2 million tonnes in 2036. It then increases to 662 million tonnes by 2050. Other scenarios predict lower levels for 2050, from 318.9 million tonnes in the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial case.
Alongside production, Russia also set export targets. The main scenario forecasts coal exports at 266.7 million tonnes in 2030. Exports are expected to grow to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036 and 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that Russian coal exports grew by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan addresses both domestic consumption and international trade.
Goals for Production and Exports
The government’s plan emphasizes maintaining current mining capacity while developing additional coal resources. It highlights a greater role for coal-producing regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East. These regions contributed 48.3% of the national output in 2024. The plan envisions this share increasing to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050. Russia reports having over 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves.
The strategy also sets targets for coal processing and extraction methods. In 2024, processed coal, excluding lignite, made up 58.9% of total production. The plan aims to raise this figure to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining accounted for 78.4% of output in 2024 and is expected to rise to between 82% and 85% according to long-term projections. The document also addresses productivity improvements, technological advancements, safety standards, and environmental considerations.
Coal Development Strategy Extends to 2050
Russia will implement the plan in three phases. The first phase, ending in 2030, focuses on expanding production and supporting the industry. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, emphasizes coal usage, processing technology, and regional logistics. The final phase runs from 2037 to 2050. The Energy Ministry will oversee the progress, working with federal and regional authorities and other partners. It will submit annual updates to the Economic Development Ministry as required by government order.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the updated plan during a government session on September 21. It replaces Russia’s earlier coal strategy through 2035, approved in 2020. Novak stated that the plan forecasts a sixfold rise in the sector’s gross value added by 2050. He also estimated its overall multiplier effect at nearly 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne target is considered the primary scenario, not an absolute forecast.