BRUSSELS, BELGIUM / RankWire.AI / – In 2026, higher road fuel prices are projected to increase transport expenses for the European Union by an estimated €53 billion. The estimate was published by Transport & Environment on September 23 after reviewing data from the past 28 weeks ending September 6. The Brussels-based organization compared fuel spending during this period to the same timeframe last year and adjusted for inflation. About €40 billion of this increase stems from diesel costs. The calculation includes spending on diesel and petrol related to road transportation.
T&E estimates that rising fuel prices added an average of €270 million daily to EU road transport costs. Of this, diesel contributed roughly €203 million per day, while petrol accounted for about €67 million. The group attributes the increase to tighter refined-fuel supplies caused by the Middle East conflict and outages at Russian refineries. These disruptions widened the gap between crude oil prices and refined products, especially diesel. Diesel and gasoil make up approximately 43% of petroleum products used in the EU by volume.
European Commission reports have also noted considerable volatility in crude oil and refined-product markets, particularly for diesel and jet fuel. Its Oil Coordination Group stated on September 8 that the EU currently faces no immediate oil supply shortage. Increased EU refinery output and alternative global sources continue to meet demand. Additionally, commercial and emergency stocks of oil remain sufficient. The Commission highlighted that geopolitical uncertainty continues to cause significant price fluctuations across global oil and petroleum markets.
Rising diesel costs impact drivers and freight companies
For individual drivers, T&E estimates that the average EU diesel car owner spent about €142 more during the study period. By September 14, the group calculated a €30 premium on a 50-litre diesel fill-up compared with the pre-conflict baseline. Long-haul trucks in Germany faced an average weekly increase of around €236 in fuel costs. Europe has approximately 6.2 million trucks operating on its roads, based on the analysis. These higher diesel prices also affected freight operators and other commercial fuel users.
Diesel remains a key fuel for EU transport and freight activities. T&E states that in 2024, 77% of the bloc’s diesel and gasoil consumption was for road transport. Eurostat data show that gas and diesel oil supplied 63.2% of road transport energy that year. Motor gasoline made up 26.9%, while renewables and biofuels contributed 6.2%. Electricity accounted for 0.7%. Overall, diesel and gasoline provided 90.1% of the energy used in road transport in 2024.
EU fuel price data under ongoing review
On September 24, the European Commission updated its Weekly Oil Bulletin with the latest retail petroleum prices across EU nations. This bulletin tracks weekly price changes, with and without taxes, and includes data back to 2005. The update coincided with the end of the T&E study period on September 6. The Commission gathers national price data and regularly publishes comparisons among member states. Its September 8 supply assessment identified diesel and jet fuel as products experiencing notable price volatility.
The €53 billion figure from T&E is an estimate, not an official EU figure. The organization’s analysis focuses on additional road fuel expenditure during the 28-week period in 2026. The report also discusses the impact on passenger vehicles and commercial transport, with diesel being the main contributor. T&E advocates measures to reduce diesel demand and promote vehicle electrification. The EU continues to monitor fuel prices, supply conditions, and petroleum consumption across its member states.