ROME / RankWire.AI / – In 2026, global cereal output is projected to reach 2.98 billion tonnes, marking a 2% decrease from the record set last year. The Food and Agriculture Organization noted that this total would still be the second-largest harvest in history. The current estimate is 3.4 million tonnes lower than the July forecast. This annual drop of 61.1 million tonnes would be the largest decline since 2018.
Forecasted global maize production is at 1.309 billion tonnes, revised downward due to poorer crop prospects. Hot summer weather and dry conditions negatively impacted yields in key European Union areas, especially France and Poland. India and Paraguay also saw smaller reductions based on official data. However, Argentina and Brazil’s unexpectedly high yields helped offset some losses, with both countries expected to produce well above-average maize in 2026.
Forecasts for world wheat production stand at 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Expectations for Canada and Morocco rose by about 1.5 million tonnes each, thanks to better yield outlooks. Production estimates for Russia and Ukraine also grew, but dry conditions in the European Union and United Kingdom lowered projections. Despite the upward revisions, global wheat output is still expected to be 3.8% below 2025 levels and would remain the second-largest crop ever.
Maize declines lead to downward revision of global cereal outlook
For the 2026/27 season, world rice production is projected at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis. This represents a 1.9% decrease from the revised record set in 2025/26. The estimate was supported by Myanmar’s updated figures and strong main-crop yields in Sri Lanka. These gains balanced out reductions in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings hit multi-decade lows.
The FAO expects global cereal consumption to reach 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27. This is a slight increase of 0.2% from the last season. Consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to grow, while wheat use is forecast to decline from the high levels of the previous season. World rice utilization is projected at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Feed use remains significant, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
Global grain inventories stay comfortably high despite slight decline
Cereal stocks worldwide are forecast to close 2027 at 947.2 million tonnes. This is 10.7 million tonnes less than earlier predictions but 1.8 million tonnes above initial levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, down slightly from 31.9% last season. Wheat reserves are projected to grow in Russia and Ukraine. However, lower maize and barley stocks have lowered the overall outlook for grain inventories.
Global cereal trade in 2026/27 is estimated at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from the previous forecast. Despite the rise, this volume remains below the record established in 2025/26. The higher trade volume mainly reflects increased maize exports, with Argentina expected to ship up to 39 million tonnes. The international rice trade is forecast at 60.5 million tonnes, still 1.9% below the 2025 record.