GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has increased its 2026 forecast for worldwide merchandise trade growth to 3.9 percent. This is a significant rise from the 1.9 percent estimate issued in March. The WTO explained that stronger trade figures in the first half of the year, supply chain improvements, and investments in artificial intelligence contributed to the positive revision. Despite major disruptions in energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent in the first half of 2026. The organization now expects merchandise trade to expand by 4.1 percent in 2027.
Demand driven by artificial intelligence was a key factor behind merchandise trade growth during the first half. Goods related to AI, such as semiconductors and servers, accounted for 47 percent of the increase in global merchandise trade. Trade in these products surged 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO also noted that global investment in AI infrastructure is likely to grow by at least 30 percent in 2026. Strong demand for computing hardware supported trade flows, even as other sectors faced disruptions from conflicts and logistical challenges.
Supply chains worldwide have adapted to pressures in major commodity and shipping markets. In the Middle East, crude oil exports fell approximately 24 percent during the first half of 2026. Exports of liquefied natural gas from the region dropped 47 percent in the same period. Nonetheless, increased shipments from other sources limited the overall decline in crude oil to around 6 percent. Meanwhile, global LNG exports decreased by only 1 percent. Worldwide container throughput grew by 3.9 percent through July, as trade routes shifted through alternative ports and corridors.
Artificial Intelligence-Driven Goods Bolster Global Merchandise Trade
The outlook for goods is more optimistic than for services. The WTO lowered its 2026 forecast for services trade volume growth from 4.8 percent in March to 3.3 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East strained transport and international travel. International tourist arrivals declined 0.8 percent in the second quarter, and only 0.4 percent more travelers visited during the first half overall. Growth in travel spending slowed sharply between the two quarters.
Other service sectors showed resilience. Exports of computer services rose 18 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter. The WTO estimated a 12 percent growth in the second quarter. Financial services exports increased 14 percent year-on-year in the same period. The WTO projects that commercial services trade will grow by 6.4 percent in 2027. It also anticipates global GDP will grow by 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent next year.
Regional Variations Persist in Trade Expansion
Trade forecasts reveal significant differences across regions. The WTO predicts Asia will lead with a 9.9 percent rise in merchandise exports in 2026. North America is expected to see 5.7 percent growth, while Africa is forecast at 5.6 percent. South America might grow by 3.4 percent. Europe is projected to experience a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the steepest decline, with merchandise exports expected to fall 17.2 percent this year.
Import growth varies greatly by region as well. Asia is forecast to increase merchandise imports by 9.5 percent. Africa’s imports are expected to grow 8.9 percent. North America’s imports are projected to rise 1.4 percent, and Europe’s by 0.5 percent. The Middle East is predicted to see a 15.4 percent decrease in merchandise imports. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that these figures reflect trade resilience but also highlight varying levels of exposure to economic and geopolitical disruptions.