POTSDAM, GERMANY / RankWire.AI / – According to new research, climate change might nearly triple the land affected by wildfires across Europe each year by 2100. The study projects a 192% rise in annual burned areas under a high-emissions scenario associated with approximately 3.6°C of global warming. This research follows recent major wildfires in Belgium, France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain in 2026. The analysis identifies hot, dry, and windy weather as the primary climate influences behind these events.
Published in Global Change Biology, the study employed two fire models linked to the LPJmL vegetation model. Researchers examined a low-emissions pathway, SSP1-2.6, and a high-emissions pathway, SSP3-7.0. The lower pathway correlates with roughly 1.8°C of warming, while the higher reaches about 3.6°C. Socioeconomic factors remained unchanged in separate tests to determine their influence on wildfire activity.
One model under the lower-emissions scenario projected a 39% increase in land burned annually by the century’s end. Another suggested a possible decline, due to different impacts of historic human influences. In contrast, the high-emissions scenario indicated much more significant growth. The largest increases are expected around the Mediterranean and throughout Western and Central Europe. Several of these regions have historically experienced relatively low fire activity.
Emissions are key drivers of future burned areas, models reveal
The research highlights that fire weather and firefighting capabilities are crucial in determining future wildfire levels across Europe. Factors like population density, vegetation shifts, and land use also influence regional outcomes. Maik Billing, lead author from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, led the study. The analysis differentiates climate-related fire weather from human influences that can affect fire spread.
Advances in fire prevention, early detection, and suppression efforts could reduce burned areas by 72% to 92% compared to scenarios lacking such improvements. The potential for reduction is greater under the lower-emissions case and less under stronger warming. Even with ongoing firefighting improvements, about 55% of Europe’s fire-prone regions could see increased fire activity if climate change intensifies. Thomas Hickler, a co-author from the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, contributed to the findings.
Proactive fire management can help control wildfire spread
The findings come amid a severe wildfire season in Europe during 2026, driven by dry conditions and extreme heat. Southern Europe experienced some of the worst outbreaks, but fires also occurred further north. The study’s projections extend beyond the Mediterranean, indicating increased fire activity across Western and Central Europe. The researchers explain these patterns are linked to changing fire weather, which worsens as temperatures rise and dry spells become longer.
The study does not consider the 192% rise as an unavoidable future. It reflects a modeled outcome based on the high-emissions pathway and the assumptions used. A much smaller increase is possible under lower emissions, especially with stronger fire management. However, management alone cannot completely prevent increased fire activity if climate change continues to intensify. The findings identify emissions levels, fire weather, and fire management capacity as key factors shaping Europe’s future wildfire landscape.